Air France and Airbus have been found guilty of manslaughter over a 2009 plane crash which killed 228 people. The Paris Appeals Court found the airline and aircraft manufacturer guilty of corporate manslaughter over the incident, in which flight AF447 between Rio de Janeiro and Paris crashed into the Atlantic Ocean. The passenger jet stalled during a storm and plunged into the water, killing all on board. A court had previously cleared the companies in April 2023 but they were found guilty after this appeal. The Airbus A330 vanished from radars during a storm, with its wreckage found after a long search of 10,000 sq km (3,860 sq miles) of sea floor.

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, model skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales (2 - 6 weeks ahead), due to compounding errors and persistent biases. To counter this degradation, we introduce probabilistic bias correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that substantially reduces systematic error by learning to correct historical probabilistic forecasts. When applied to the leading dynamical and AI models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), PBC doubles the subseasonal skill of the AI Forecasting System and improves the skill of the operationally-debiased dynamical model for 91% of pressure, 92% of temperature, and 98% of precipitation targets. We designed PBC for operational deployment, and, in ECMWF's 2025 real-time forecasting competition, its global forecasts placed first for all weather variables and lead times, outperforming the dynamical models from six operational forecasting centers, an international dynamical multi-model ensemble, ECMWF's AI Forecasting System, and the forecasting systems of 34 teams worldwide. These probabilistic skill gains translate into more accurate prediction of extreme events and have the potential to improve agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness in vulnerable communities.

We study the problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models, and propose an approach based on sample-weighted empirical risk minimization. Our method, Weighted ERM, encodes priors on the change points via weights assigned to each sample, to obtain weighted versions of standard estimators such as M-estimators and maximum-likelihood estimators. Under mild assumptions on the data, we obtain a precise asymptotic characterization of the performance of our method for general Gaussian designs, in the high-dimensional limit where the number of samples and covariate dimension grow proportionally. We show how this characterization can be used to efficiently construct a posterior distribution over change points. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real data illustrate the efficacy of Weighted ERM compared to existing approaches, demonstrating that sample weights constructed with weakly informative priors can yield accurate change point estimators. Our method is implemented as an open-source package, weightederm, available in Python and R.

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Symmetries are prevalent in deep learning and can significantly influence the learning dynamics of neural networks. In this paper, we examine how exponential symmetries - a broad subclass of continuous symmetries present in the model architecture or loss function - interplay with stochastic gradient descent (SGD). We first prove that gradient noise creates a systematic motion (a "Noether flow") of the parameters θ along the degenerate direction to a unique initialization-independent fixed point θ

In large-scale applications, datasets often contain billions of high-dimensional points. Grouping similar data points into clusters is crucial for understanding and organizing datasets.

Empirically, we verify the computational efficiency of our methods.